An Idiot With a Plan Can Beat a Genius Without a Plan

(Often attributed to Warren Buffett — and even if the exact source is hard to verify, the idea is brutally true.)

If you've ever watched a year disappear, you already know how this happens:

you start with good intentions
you stay busy
you solve a lot of "urgent" things
and somehow the big goals barely moved

That's the "genius without a plan" problem.

You can be talented, smart, fast, creative… and still lose to someone average who simply shows up with a clear plan and executes it consistently.

Why the quote hits so hard

Because it's not really about idiots vs geniuses.

It's about direction vs drift.

A plan does three things that raw intelligence doesn't automatically do:

It converts intention into action
It protects your time from randomness
It creates feedback loops (so you can adjust early)

And those three things compound.

The real advantage of having a plan: fewer bad decisions

Most "failed years" aren't caused by one huge mistake.

They're caused by thousands of tiny decisions like:

"Sure, I'll take that extra project."
"I'll start this side thing too."
"I'll do the important stuff next week."
"This feels urgent, so I'll handle it now."

A plan gives you a simple filter:

Does this move my year forward?

If not, it's easier to say no—without guilt.

Plans beat motivation (because motivation is unstable)

Motivation is a nice spark, but it's not a system.

What actually works is making your plan specific and behavioral, not inspirational.

There's strong evidence in psychology that turning goals into concrete "if–then" plans (implementation intentions) improves follow-through because it pre-decides what you'll do when the moment arrives.

Example:

Goal: "Get in shape"
Plan: "If it's Monday/Wednesday/Friday at 18:30, then I train for 45 minutes."

Now your brain doesn't have to negotiate every time. It just runs the script.

The mistake most people make: they set goals, not a plan

Goals are outcomes. Plans are behaviors.

A goal without a plan is basically a wish with a deadline.

A good yearly plan includes:

a target (what "success" means)
a weekly system (what you do consistently)
obstacle plans (what you do when life gets messy)

Because life will get messy.

A simple "non-genius" yearly plan that works

You don't need 20 goals. You need a few that matter.

1) Pick 3–5 goals for the year

Think in categories:

Health / energy
Relationships
Money
Business / career
Learning

Write each as a measurable outcome.

2) Define the weekly system for each goal

Ask: What would this goal look like on a normal week?

"Save €10,000" → "Save €200/week automatically"
"Build an audience" → "Publish 2 posts/week"
"Ship the product" → "3 focused build sessions/week"

3) Add "if–then" rules for obstacles

This is the part most people skip.

"If I miss a workout, then I do a 15-minute minimum version the next day."
"If I'm slammed with client work, then I do maintenance mode this week (not 'quit')."

How to run this inside Self-Manager

If you want Self-Manager to actually help you win the year (not just store tasks), set it up like this:

1) Create a pinned table: "Year Plan"

Columns:

Goal
Why it matters
Success metric
Weekly system
Obstacles + if–then rule
Next action

2) Use Quarterly Reviews to stay on track

A plan is useless if you never look at it again.

Quarterly reviews are the perfect rhythm:

long enough for progress
short enough to correct course

Review:

What moved?
What didn't?
What should you stop doing?

3) Translate goals into weekly commitments

Each week, pick 3 "must-win" items that serve the year.

Not 30 tasks. Three meaningful outcomes.

4) Keep daily work small, visible, and repeatable

The winning strategy is boring:

small actions, repeated, tracked.

That's the entire game.

Final thought

The "idiot with a plan" wins because they don't rely on brilliance.

They rely on:

direction
consistency
review
adjustment

That's not motivational. That's mechanical.

And that's exactly why it works.